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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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Lane Kiffin will face Ole Miss, his former team, for the first time since he was named LSU head coach last November. For Kiffin’s return to Oxford, the Tigers are 59% favourites at Kalshi.
The announcement came on the same week that Indian Gaming Association leaders met with CFTC Chair Michael Selig. The meetings centred on prediction market-related discussions that IGA Chair David Bean deemed mostly unproductive. On Wednesday, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed a lower court’s decision in Blue Lake Rancheria vs Kalshi.
Per the ruling, the Ninth Circuit determined that Kalshi’s sports event contracts amount to unauthorised gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) when accessed on tribal land.
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UPDATE: Carrot Top (real name: Scott Thompson) remains hospitalized in Las Vegas following what is now widely being reported as a suicide attempt on Friday (Sept. 18). On Sunday afternoon (Sept. 20), a rep for the beloved longtime Strip comedian told TMZ he “is now awake, breathing on his own and continuing to improve, surrounded by his family and those closest to him.”
All Carrot Top shows at the Luxor have been canceled at least through Saturday (Sept. 26).
In other Carrot Top news, Brian Evans—the man accused in a lawsuit filed by the comic of extorting him over a sex tape—told TMZ he denies ever threatening to release the tape. He claims it was erased from a USB drive “in accordance with the prior settlement”—a statement that TMZ did not elaborate on—and that he’s “sorry that Scott apparently did something to hurt himself.”
EARLIER: Carrot Top, the comic with the longest-running current Strip residency at more than 20 years, was rushed to a hospital on Friday (Sept. 18) after what TMZ reported as a suicide attempt.
His publicist, Jami Schlicher, confirmed only that he is recovering and receiving care. She asked for privacy on behalf of his family and close friends and did not address the reported cause.
