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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

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The government said it aims to achieve this by increasing the forfeiture rate when gaming machine entitlements are traded from one in three to one in two. 

The NSW government initiated its first formal review of ClubGRANTS in over a decade after taking office in 2023. Although the final report was submitted in January 2025, it has yet to be released publicly. 

A government spokesperson stated that ministers are still considering the review’s findings, while updated guidance has been issued to clarify funding criteria for statewide services and tax obligations.

About Brick Snake 2000

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