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What is Gallina Fortunata?
The equinox, a relatively new phenomenon, occurs when the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB all hold games on the same day. A fifth league, the MLS, also signed Tuesday’s letter. Although the equinox will transpire this year on 26 October, the MLS will not be in action.
More than a year after then-Houston Astros pitcher Lance McCullers faced menacing threats from an exasperated bettor, questions remain about whether the proposed bans will serve as a meaningful deterrent to agitated sportsbook customers. An investigation later determined that the bettor resided overseas.
Since the Supreme Court’s PASPA decision in 2018, there has been an uptick on harassment against athletes from bettors. The collection of incidents, in the view of the industry, is typically construed as both troubling and prevalent. Against a backdrop of alarming threats in numerous sports, perhaps the most disconcerting occurred at the hands of Benjamin “Parlay” Patz, a California bettor.
How to play Gallina Fortunata
“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.
It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.
A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
About Gallina Fortunata
Still, Kalshi had a nine-fold lead over Polymarket, its next closest rival. Polymarket, meanwhile, led the group with 762,000 app downloads, edging Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel in the category. The downloads represented a 13,509% weekly increase and 25% of total category downloads, Polymarket wrote in a statement.
Across the market, operators delivered high double-digit gains compared with Labor Day weekend, which featured a full slate of college football games but no NFL contests. Two operators, DraftKings and Underdog each saw triple-digit growth, delivering weekly increases of 125% and 119%, respectively. Three others, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Novig, saw gains of at least 30%, led by Polymarket with a weekly increase of 46%.
One interesting nugget surrounds weekend figures at Kalshi, where volume on Sunday only surpassed prior daily activity by $34 million, BofA data shows. Typically, Sunday volume for the quarter dwarfs that of College Football Saturdays due to the voracious demand for NFL offerings. BofA analyst Shaun Kelley attributes the irregularity to the possibility that Kalshi is “over indexing” on college sports.
